Donald Trump Sees Lead in Solidly Republican States Cut in Half

Donald Trump’s lead in two states he easily carried in 2016 and 2020 has been cut in half in recent polls, though only one state he won in both elections—North Carolina—is viewed as a toss-up.
The presidential race between Trump and Kamala Harris is poised to be very close, with polls pointing to an election battle similar to the 2020 race between Trump and President Joe Biden. On Friday, FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed Harris with a mere 2.5-point lead over Trump nationally, with the core battleground states even closer.
Of the 25 states Trump won in 2020, only North Carolina is viewed as a toss-up this year. The other battlegrounds—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—were all narrowly won by Biden four years ago. But Democrats are investing in a handful of other states Trump won twice, particularly those home to potentially competitive Senate races, such as Florida, Ohio and Texas.
Although Trump is expected to easily win them in November, the latest polls in Arkansas and Oklahoma showed his support has dropped in half since 2020. He won Arkansas by 28 points and Oklahoma by 33 points four years ago.
A Hendrix College poll of 696 likely Arkansas voters, conducted from September 5 to 6, showed Trump leading Harris by 15 points (55 percent to 40 percent). Meanwhile, a SoonerPoll of 323 likely Oklahoma voters, conducted from August 24 to 31, showed Trump winning the state by 16 points (56 percent to 40 percent).
Harris losing these states by 15 or 16 points would mark a significant shift in two of the most conservative states in the country. Notably, no other polls have been conducted in Arkansas and Oklahoma since Harris became the Democratic nominee, so it’s unclear if these polls are outliers.
Harris has improved on Biden’s polling since the summer, when concerns about his age caused his numbers to dip. But surveys still suggest the race mirrors that of 2020, for the most part. While some polls show Harris gaining ground in Republican states, others show Trump winning over voters in traditionally Democratic states like New York.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly told Newsweek in a statement, “President Trump is winning this race because everyone was better off when he was in office. Kamala Harris has wrecked our economy, driven up prices, opened the southern border, and unleashed a wave of violent crime in communities across the country.”
She went on: “Alongside the broadest coalition in history that includes leaders like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard, and everywhere from traditional battlegrounds to longtime ‘blue states’ like Virginia and Minnesota, voters are tired of weak, failed, and dangerously liberal Kamala Harris, and they are ready to Make America Great Again on November 5.”
Newsweek also reached out by email to the Harris campaign for comment.
Here is an overview of polling in states Trump won in both his 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
FiveThirtyEight’s average gave Trump a very narrow advantage in the Tar Heel State on Friday, showing him with a 0.9-point lead in the state, the most competitive of those Trump won in his past presidential runs.
The latest independent polls in North Carolina show Trump with a narrow lead. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters from October 5 to 8, showed Trump up 1 point in the state (50 percent to 49 percent).
A Wall Street Journal poll, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO, showed the race tied, with each candidate receiving 47 percent of the vote. It surveyed 600 registered voters from September 28 to October 8.
Democrats are hoping Harris benefits from Democrat Josh Stein’s more comfortable lead in North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, which was shaken up after CNN reported on posts allegedly made by Republican Mark Robinson, including references to watching pornography featuring transgender individuals and calling himself a “black NAZI.” Robinson has said those posts were not made by him.
Trump, who has praised Robinson as “Martin Luther King on steroids,” has not distanced himself from the candidate. Experts have said it is uncertain whether the scandal will have an impact on the presidential race.
Five other states show Trump leading in the single digits, but he remains favored to win each of them in November.
Florida and Texas are viewed as the next two most competitive Trump-won states. The Cook Political Report classifies them both as “Likely Republican,” meaning they aren’t viewed as especially close but have the potential to become more competitive.
In Florida, a state that has trended increasingly Republican in recent years, a Marist College poll, conducted among 1,410 registered voters from October 3 to 7, showed Trump leading Harris by 4 points (51 percent to 47 percent).
But a separate survey from The New York Times and Siena College gave Trump a larger lead. It showed him up 13 points against Harris (53 percent to 40 percent). It polled 622 likely voters from September 29 to October 7.
Democrats are also hoping to make Texas, where leftward shifts in cities and suburban areas have narrowed Republican margins, competitive. But polls still give Trump an advantage in November.
Marist College polled 1,186 likely voters in the state from October 3 to 7, finding Trump with a 7-point lead over Harris (53 percent to 46 percent).
Meanwhile, a Times/Siena College poll, conducted among 617 likely voters from September 29 to October 4, showed Trump up 6 points (50 percent to 44 percent) in the Lone Star State.
Trump won Florida by 3 points and Texas by nearly 6 points in 2020.
Three other states have also produced polls showing the race in the single digits, though forecasters view these states as more difficult for Harris. The Cook Political Report still rates them all as “Safe Republican.”
An Alaska Survey Research poll, conducted among 1,182 likely voters from September 27 to 29, showed Trump up 9 points in Alaska (52 percent to 43 percent). He won the state by 10 points in 2020.
A Selzer & Co. poll, sponsored by The Des Moines Register and Mediacom, showed Trump up 4 points in Iowa (47 percent to 43 percent). It polled 656 likely voters from September 8 to 11. In Ohio, a Washington Post poll, conducted among 1,002 registered voters from October 3 to 7, showed Trump up 7 points (51 percent to 44 percent).
Trump won both Iowa and Ohio by 8 points in 2020.
Polling in the most conservative-leaning states is generally scant, as pollsters invest their resources in the more competitive states. But some surveys have shed light on how these states might vote in November.
Harris isn’t expected to be particularly competitive in any state Trump won by a large margin in both elections. Polls of a Harris-Trump matchup from some states, such as Alabama or Louisiana, are not available, so it’s yet to be seen if his lead is holding there or if Harris may be making inroads with voters.
No other states have changes quite as drastic as Arkansas and Oklahoma, but polls suggest Utah may be the state where Trump is most building upon his 2020 vote share. A HarrisX poll, sponsored by Deseret News and the University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics, showed Trump up 32 points in the state (60 percent to 28 percent). Trump won Utah by 21 points in 2020.
An ActiVote poll of Tennessee, conducted among 400 likely voters from July 27 to August 29, also showed Trump improving on his past performance. The poll had Trump up 26 points in the state (63 percent to 37 percent), a slightly larger margin than the 23 points he won it by in 2024.
Other red states have changed less from four years ago.
A Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research poll of 1,078 likely South Carolina voters from September 21 to 29 showed Trump up 10 points (52 percent to 42 percent). He won the Palmetto State by about 11 points in 2020.
In Missouri, FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed Trump up 12.5 points on Friday, closer than his 15-point lead in 2020. FiveThirtyEight showed him up 18 points in Nebraska, which he won by 19 points in 2020.